As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park this Friday evening at 6:45 PM ET, fans are in for a matchup that could potentially sway the momentum for both teams. The Reds come into the game with a 47-50 season record, sitting in 4th place in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by eight games. Meanwhile, the Nationals hold a 44-53 season record and also occupy the 4th place in their division, the NL East, lagging behind the Phillies by a significant 18.5 games.
Pitching Predictions
The Reds are favored to win the game, but the odds reflect a competitive edge for the Nationals as well. Frankie Montas, who has been tapped to start for the Reds, will aim to improve upon his 4-7 record and 4.38 ERA over his 17 starts this season. Montas is coming off a game where he gave up five earned runs over seven innings pitched against the Colorado Rockies, highlighting his struggles this season. On the other side, Patrick Corbin is slated to start for the Nationals. Corbin holds a 4-9 record with a 5.57 ERA spanning 19 starts. Notably, Corbin has conceded at least one home run in each of his last four outings, although he did pitch seven scoreless innings on June 24th and is projected to finish with five strikeouts in this upcoming game.
Team Form Guide
The Reds have shown a solid performance in their recent games on the road, securing a 4-1 record over their last five away fixtures. However, their recent loss against the Marlins, where they fell 3-2, highlights a need to tighten up their play. Nick Lodolo allowed two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings during that game, and Elly De La Cruz's home run in the first inning was one of the few bright spots for the team.
The Nationals, however, have struggled at home, with a 2-3 record over their last five games. They also endured a tough loss against the Brewers, with a daunting final score of 9-3, a contest where Jake Irvin allowed six earned runs in just four innings. Over the last 10 games, the Nationals have managed a 3-7 record, yet they did take two out of three games in their most recent series against the Brewers, signaling some resilience.
One interesting side note is the Nationals' status as underdogs with a better-than-average capability to punch above their weight. They have a 6-4 straight-up record as underdogs and a 5-5 record against the run line in such scenarios. The Reds, on the other hand, have split their games playing as favorites with a 5-5 record.
Offensive Stats and Key Players
Offensively, the Reds are averaging 4.5 runs per game, positioning them 14th in the league, though their batting average of .231 places them at 17th in on-base percentage and 25th in strikeouts. Spencer Steer has been a key player for the Reds, driving in 60 runs and hitting 15 home runs, putting him among the top 10 in RBIs in the MLB.
The Nationals average 4.1 runs per game, ranking them 23rd in the league, but they slightly improve to 4.2 runs per game in home contests. Their batting average stands at .239, with a 13th ranking in on-base percentage. CJ Abrams is leading the Nationals with 15 home runs and 48 RBIs, although he has struggled recently, going just 3/21 in his last five games.
Over/Under Insights
The over/under for this game is set at nine runs. The Reds have a unique record under this condition, posting a 2-16-3 when the over/under is set at nine. The Nationals have fared slightly better with a 7-7-2 record in similar scenarios. Both teams will need to navigate these dynamics carefully if they aim to cover the spread.
Notable Absences
Player absences could also play a critical role in this matchup. The Reds will be without Joey Gallo, Luke Maile, and Matt McLain, while the Nationals will miss the services of Trevor Williams, Josiah Gray, and CJ Abrams. These absences might shift the dynamics and performance of both teams, putting more pressure on the remaining roster to step up.
Against the Run Line
When it comes to performance against the run line, the Reds hold a superior record with 53-44, including an impressive 30-14 on the road. The Nationals, while less dominant, still post a favorable 46-34 record against the run line as underdogs.
As the Reds square off against the Nationals, all eyes will be on whether the favorable odds play out for Cincinnati or if Washington can defy their underdog status and claim victory. With both teams keen to improve their seasonal standings, this game promises to deliver captivating baseball action.