A Grim Statistical History
The teams that manage to go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have a historical edge, winning 27 out of 28 series. The lone exception occurred in 1942 when the Toronto Maple Leafs improbably rallied to defeat the Detroit Red Wings. Out of those 28 series, an overwhelming 20 ended in sweeps.
The Florida Panthers are aiming to replicate that decisive outcome in the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings swiftly dispatched the Washington Capitals in four games in 1998. Even if the Edmonton Oilers manage to stave off elimination with a Game 4 victory, the odds are still against them—25 of the 28 series have concluded in no more than five games.
Against these daunting statistics, the Oilers persist in their belief.
Oilers' Current Struggles
Edmonton's record this season against the Panthers stands at a dismal 0-5-0. During Thursday’s game, the Oilers did show some fight in the third period, narrowing the Panthers' lead to 4-3 with gritty goals from Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod. Yet, the critical takeaway from Game 3 was that the Oilers found themselves trailing 4-1 at the start of the third period—on home ice, in a must-win scenario, against a team boasting a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame throughout the postseason.
Their collapse was set in motion during a painful 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida netted three goals. After Edmonton had just tied the game at 1-1 thanks to a Warren Foegele breakaway goal, a turnover by goaltender Stuart Skinner allowed Eetu Luostarinen to set up Vladimir Tarasenko at 9:12, deflating the home crowd. The score became 3-1 by 13:57, with Matthew Tkachuk’s effective forechecking leading to a Darnell Nurse turnover, which Sam Bennett quickly converted for his seventh goal of the playoffs. Aleksander Barkov rounded off the scoring spree at 15:31, capitalizing on a 2-on-1 opportunity.
The Stars Fail to Shine
For Edmonton, mistakes seemed to pile up, but goals from their star players did not. Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have all found the back of the net, but the Oilers' top five playoff scorers—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have not. Their power play, once thriving at over 37% efficiency in the postseason, has been powerless, with Florida's penalty kill thwarting all 10 attempts thus far.
McDavid has still managed to hit the score sheet with assists on three of Edmonton’s four goals in the series. The Oilers' star is on pace to become just the second player since 1967-68 to contribute a point on at least half of his team's postseason goals. The only other player to achieve this milestone was Wayne Gretzky, also with the Oilers, in 1988. However, the other leading scorers have yet to make a mark in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
Leon Draisaitl has been candid about the team's struggles. "Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So, yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better,” he admitted. Draisaitl also acknowledged the team's collective errors: "We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of."
Goaltender Stuart Skinner remains determined despite the bleak odds. "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil," he asserted. Head coach Kris Knoblauch echoed this sentiment: "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we’re just [saying], 'That team’s better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don’t think there’s any doubt in our room."
There is a palpable determination within the team. "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting," Knoblauch emphasized. "There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing."
Skinner also addressed the Panthers' scoring spree: "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Draisaitl remains cautious but hopeful: "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you’re chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it’s hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."